Global Trends 2030 – Alternative Worlds

by Jörgen Eriksson on January 11, 2013

“We are at a critical juncture in human history, which could lead to widely contrasting futures”

– Christopher Kojm , Chairman of the United States National Intelligence Council

Global TrendsThe National Intelligence Council (NIC) is the center for strategic thinking within the United States Intelligence Community. One of the NICs projects is a Global Trends report produced every fourth year for the incoming US president. Recently, NIC released its Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds.

The study looks at the likely state of the Earth in 2030. The book is a well thought out and equally well-presented publication on the upcoming trends that the world faces within the next two decades. The arguments are well researched and thought provoking. The world of 2030 will be radically transformed from our world today.

The authors predict that by 2030, no country, whether the US, China, or any other large country, will be a hegemonic power. The empowerment of individuals and diffusion of power among states and from states to informal networks will have a dramatic impact, largely reversing the historic rise of the West since 1750, restoring Asia’s weight in the global economy, and ushering in a new era of “democratisation” at the international and domestic level.

Some megatrends from the report are population growth, individual empowerment, rapid urbanization, and middle class expansion that combined with food, water, and energy  shortages will shape the future of many developing countries, not the least in Africa.  Some countries in the climate change-threatened Sahel and Sahara regions will be severely challenged by resource scarcities.

Global Trends 2030

The report concludes that “Asia is set to surpass North America and Europe in global economic power.”  These shifts would give China the potential to replace the United States as the world’s international leader before 2030.

Trend report

Education will be a game-changer for those developing countries that not only offer nominally widespread schooling but ensure that qualified teachers are in classrooms.

Commodity-exporting countries need to be wary that increased volatility in global markets is probably ahead and will challenge their fiscal viability and stability if they do not work to diversify their economies.

Africa will be at risk of conflict and increased violence as development proceeds unevenly among and within the continents countries. The Sahel region, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Somalia will be the most vulnerable and challenged to improve governance and resource management.

Click here to download the report.

Below is a video clip about the report

Introduction to Global Trends 2030

About Jörgen Eriksson :

Jörgen Eriksson is the founder of Bearing and is the Chairman of the firm since it was created. He has successfully expanded Bearing into covering projects on four continents. He is also Adjunct Professor of Innovation Management at the International University of Monaco and at Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya in Barcelona and he is an active member of the Founders Alliance organisation.

Working with consulting engagements across Bearings practices, he has over the past fifteen years participated in and supervised a large number of client projects, from innovation system development and place development and branding, to merger and acquisition assignments and leading edge research and business development activities for key clients.

His new book, Branding for Hooligans, will be published in 2015. It is about how innovation and branding are key survival factors in our modern times of hyper competitive markets.

Prior to Bearing, he was Director of Europe, Middle East, and Africa for Trema Treasury Management, a technology and consulting services provider, supplying financial software solutions for the global financial industry, Clients included The European Central Bank, Citibank, SEB, South African reserve Bank, Deutsche Bank, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), as well as many other large financial institutions and Fortune 500 companies.

Early in his career Eriksson was educated at the Stockholm School of Economics, where he studied economics, financial economics and philosophy. He then worked in Scandinavian investment banks and also for the Swedish Institute of National Defense Research.

You can contact Jörgen on e-mail jorgen.eriksson@bearing-consulting.com, connect on LinkedIn on http://fr.linkedin.com/pub/jörgen-eriksson/0/38/8a0/ and follow him on twitter on joreri508.

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